Caribbean Empty Leg Flights: The December Exodus That Runs 2.4 to 1

Over the 12 months ending August 2026, SkyAccess marketplace listings recorded 12,715 empty leg flights from the United States to the Caribbean, Bahamas, Mexico and Bermuda, and 12,968 headed the other way. Over a full year the corridor looks balanced. Month by month, it is anything but.

December is the tell. In a broader monthly series that counts all SkyAccess marketplace empty leg listings touching the region in either direction, with any far side, 2,817 empty legs left the region against 1,177 arriving, a 2.4 to 1 imbalance. Jets finish their inbound holiday flights and reposition home empty. In January the flow reverses on the same all-listings basis: 2,972 empty legs into the region, the biggest to-region month, as the fleet swings back south.

The December exodus

The season builds fast. In the all-listings monthly series of SkyAccess marketplace listings (both directions, any far side), October 2025 logged 633 empty legs into the region and 846 out; November climbed to 962 in and 1,205 out. Then December splits the corridor open: 1,177 in, 2,817 out. That is the widest monthly imbalance in the series, in either direction.

The mechanics are simple: a jet flown one way into Nassau or St Maarten before the holidays has to get home, and the homebound sector is listed as an empty leg. January mirrors the move on the same all-listings basis: 2,972 legs into the region against 1,480 out, as jets reposition south for the return wave.

Where the jets fly

Every leg in the table below has a US endpoint. The Bahamas dominates with 4,897 legs from the US and 5,073 back, ahead of Mexico at 3,151 and 3,186.

Destination	US to destination	Destination to US
Bahamas	4,897	5,073
Mexico	3,151	3,186
Turks and Caicos	980	1,042
Puerto Rico	506	562
St Maarten	540	518
Cayman Islands	473	495
Bermuda	326	488
Dominican Republic	373	424
Anguilla	236	307
Antigua	251	186
Jamaica	183	155
US Virgin Islands	166	126
British Virgin Islands	143	108
Barbados	154	101

At pair level, Miami-Opa locka Executive (OPF) to Nassau is the busiest US-restricted pair at 548 legs, ahead of Fort Lauderdale Executive (FXE) to Nassau at 296 and OPF to Providenciales at 262. Florida fills the board: Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International (FLL) to Nassau at 184, Palm Beach International (PBI) to Nassau at 173, OPF to Marsh Harbour at 169, Naples (APF) to Nassau at 154 and OPF to North Eleuthera at 144. The only non-Florida pairs near the top are Teterboro (TEB) to Bermuda at 118 legs and Van Nuys (VNY) to Los Cabos at 114, matching our ranking of US states by empty leg activity.

The monthly rhythm

The series below is broader than the table above: it counts all SkyAccess marketplace empty leg listings touching the region in either direction, with any far side. The table begins with October 2025. August and September 2025 are excluded from seasonal comparison because marketplace listing coverage was still ramping up in those months, which would distort month-to-month reads.

Month	Into the region	Out of the region
October 2025	633	846
November 2025	962	1,205
December 2025	1,177	2,817
January 2026	2,972	1,480
February 2026	1,919	1,807
March 2026	2,499	2,704
April 2026	2,242	1,944
May 2026	1,435	1,390
June 2026	891	853
July 2026	427	420

February settles into near balance at 1,919 in and 1,807 out. March brings a second surge both ways, 2,499 in and 2,704 out, before the corridor fades to a July floor of 427 in and 420 out. The rhythm is the inverse of the summer-peaking season in our transatlantic empty leg data; for the market-wide view, see the Empty Leg Index for August 2026.

What this means if you want to fly

• Northbound, aim for late December. Homebound supply peaks right after the holidays: across all listings touching the region, 2,817 legs out against 1,177 in.
• Southbound, aim for January. On the same all-listings basis, 2,972 into-region legs make it the deepest month for flights toward the islands.
• South Florida to Nassau is the liquid market. OPF-Nassau alone shows 548 US-restricted legs, so short-notice matches are most likely there.
• Check the board often. Empty legs surface close to departure, as our listing lead time data shows.

Methodology

All counts come from SkyAccess marketplace listings over the 12 months ending August 2026. Deleted listings are excluded, and airports are filtered to large or medium fields or those with scheduled service. The destination and pair figures are US-restricted: every counted leg has a US endpoint. The monthly series counts all listings touching the region in either direction with any far side, so the two sets of figures are never combined.

“The region” is shorthand for the Caribbean, Bahamas, Mexico and Bermuda. Bermuda sits in the Atlantic rather than the Caribbean, and Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are US territories; all are grouped here because the travel pattern is the same. Airport pairs are reported only where both airports carry a public name.

Journalists: we produce same-day custom cuts of this dataset; see SkyAccess data research to request one.